Go/NoGo

In my day job the term Go/NoGo is used daily. In this context it refers to whether or not we chase a project. There are several factors that weigh into that decision like size of the project, potential gross margin, and local experience in that area. We look at all the criteria, and based upon a weighted scale, we decide Go/NoGo.

I have always been rather fond of Ben Franklin’s decision making model. I use this model in most key decisions that I make. To say I am fond of it, well let me just lay my cards on the table…. I have a spreadsheet. There, you happy?

The basis of the model is really rather simple. You frame the decision in the form of a question, something that is answerable in either a yes or no regarding a course of action. Then you list the pros and cons, attaching a 1-10 importance rating scale to each of them. The next step is to assess the probability of the pros and cons by attaching a number to it. If the outcome is certain, then it would rate a 10. Once I have weighted, and assessed the probability, then I pretty much press GO on my spreadsheet and it magically multiplies the weight by the probability and totals the Pro and Con columns. Sometimes I will even weigh in my gut feeling. I am sure that Ben would have done this too. In the end, the decision really comes down to simple math.

Sometimes these decisions put us at a crossroads in our lives and the decision, when weighty, really feels too big for the spreadsheet ~ and logic really doesn’t seem to be the appropriate approach to these decisions. What then does one do? Ask Marge – she would say “pray”. Ask Jen, she would say “go with your gut.” Ask Cindie, and all I can say is that I wish it were as simple as an algebraic equation.